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International Reserves Template
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Composite Business Cycle Indicators
The South African Reserve Bank will hold an Annual General Meeting (AGM) on Friday, 26 July 2019 at the South African Reserve Bank Conference Centre. The AGM will start at 10:00.
Members of the media who would like attend should please contact Leisel Radebe on 012 313 4754 / media@resbank.co.za. Broadcast media should arrive by 09:00 ensure that camera equipment is set-up by 09:30.
Issued by SARB Media Relations
South Africa’s economy has a very well-developed financial sector and high reliance on capital flows. We employ a micro-founded and stock- and flow-consistent model in the tradition of Backus et al. (1980) to study the impact of capital flow reversal shocks on the South African economy. The model provides for a richer representation of institutional balance sheets than existing models do. The financial sector’s behaviour in the model draws on the recent theoretical frameworks of Borio and Zhu (2012) and Woodford (2010), which highlight the relationship between bank capital, the risk-taking behaviour of the financial sector, lending spreads and economic activity. We specify a dynamic adjustment model of household expectations with properties that differ from the way in which expectations are formed in both stock- and flow-consistent as well as dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Household expectations resemble bounded rationality. The financial accelerator mechanism operates through the balance sheets of all institutions in the economy. The results indicate larger impacts compared to previous studies. We find that, even in the absence of large foreign currency-denominated liabilities, a reversal in capital flows can affect the domestic economy through its impact on domestic liquidity, on the risk-taking behaviour of the financial sector, and on the demand for assets. The negative effect can be exacerbated if the shock changes the expectation formation process of agents.
This paper investigates the aggregate and sectoral public-private remuneration pattern in South Africa from 2001:q1 to 2017:q1. Co-integration analysis confirm a stable, long-run relationship. The adjustment to the deviations from this long-run relationship is strong and significant for public-sector remuneration, while private-sector earnings neither respond to the deviations from the long-run relationship nor lagged changes of public sector remuneration. No individual public-sector remuneration is found to Granger-cause an individual private-sector remuneration. On the other hand, causal relations between private-sector remuneration and public sector remuneration cannot be rejected. A traditional “Dutch-disease” hypothesis for South Africa is rejected. Widening this analysis to individual private and public sectors confirms the results with aggregate earnings with two exceptions: 1) Earnings in financial intermediation and private road transport can be better explained including public sector earnings, and 2) Earnings in manufacturing and mining are found to be related to public sector earnings in the long run. Nevertheless, the degree of fit is low for individual private sector variables except financial intermediation and private road transport while it is high for individual public sector earnings except local authorities. Efforts to slow down the speed of the wage-price spiral should not exclude the private sector.